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Wheat breeding: Past, present, and future
B. F. CARVER (1). (1) Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, U.S.A.
Genetic estimates of per-annum wheat yield gains tend to hover around 1%, a figure that would appear to fall short of satisfying long-term global demands for food production from all cereal crops. Such estimates tend also to be biased downward relative to breeding program-specific advances, and their interpretation can be overstated relative to a perceived genetic plateau. What cannot be overstated is the scientific energy devoted historically to protecting yield potential rather than, or at the expense of, extending it. Wide variation among breeding programs in realized or expected gains is the norm, driven by the divergence and number of breeding objectives subordinate or parallel to grain yield, which in turn are pre-determined by the target environment and the intended use. Common to the success of any wheat breeding program—public or private—is a set of three elementary prerequisites: a well-grounded and rounded team of scientific expertise, the ability to access and use novel germplasm, and a healthy revenue stream that rewards and stimulates progress. All have experienced change over the course of a near-century of U.S. wheat breeding, but the one most subject to change in the present is germplasm access. The one most subject to change in the future will be the ability to use the germplasm that remains accessible. More specifically, new progress will depend, as always, on creating and capturing novel variability. The future has never looked as bright, as new methods and technology signal a rejuvenation of yield advances with no less emphasis on wheat functionality. Leading a much longer list are reverse genetic approaches, genetic engineering applications that do not necessarily rely on transgenes, emergence of synthetic derivatives, a reawakening of hybrid wheat cultivar development, and genomewide selection.
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